John C. Wright ([info]johncwright) wrote,
@ 2007-07-31 11:21:00
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Reports of the death of SF are greatly exaggerated
Here is an article on a topic science fiction fans have some interest in. The death of Science Fiction. Mr. Richard Harter says

Why was science fiction as a genre invented and developed in the twentieth century (we may ignore Moskowitz's "scholarship"); why not substantially earlier? As an answer consider the changing conceptions of "the future".

Prior to the industrial revolution there was no significant conception of the future being essential different from the present with the exception of millennarian visions. Empires might rise and fall; prosperity might wax and wane; et cetera; but the thought that the future would be different in kind from the present was a thought that did not occur to people to think. Insofar as people thought of change over time they tended to think of it as degeneration over time with a golden age in the misty past.

In the wake of the industrial revolution we see the Victorian notion of progress. This was a thought of change but one in these terms - the future will be like the present only better. It is only in the twentieth century that possibility of the future being different in kind from the present and that technology would effect this change became plausible, at least to visionaries (and in part science fiction is a literature of visionaries.)

My opinion: I also think that science fiction will die off as a genre, not because it will be gone, but only because it will no longer be unique. It will be absorbed into the mainstream. Once the common man is used to technological change as a fact of life, literature whose main point is awe and wonder or fear of technological change will not stand out.

We have already seen this, for example, in spy fiction. A recent James Bond movie had an invisible car. HG Wells' wrote a story about an invisible man. Wells' story was SF because he speculated scientifically about what the invisible men of myth would actually have to be like to be plausibly invisible: i.e. naked. Wells also asked what invisibility could plausibly be used for: i.e. terror. The invisible car of James Bond, on the other hand, was merely a gadget. What had once been a challenge to the imagination, was now a background gimmick. People outside the SF ghetto are using our tropes.
 
And this trend is paralleled within the ghetto by what we might call the "de-scientification of science fiction."

In the same way that some authors of popular books learned everything they need to know about life in kindergarten, readers of my generation could learn everything they needed to know about astronomy and physics from science fiction. That might seem an foolish boast, but keep in mind who "my generation" had as its reading material: Poul Andersen, Jerry Pornelle, Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov, Arthur C. Clarke, Larry Niven, whatever else you say about them pro or con as writers, certainly know their basic science, and could explain it in a clear and entertaining way.

I have met people, and I mean college-educated people working in technical fields, who are scientifically illiterate. One young fellow told me the gravity of the Earth was caused by its spin. I asked him if people were weightless at the North Pole. Another stalwart told me that matter was not made of energy. I asked him where carbon atoms come from. I cannot tell you how often I have seen people mistake a solar system for a galaxy. (Hint: galaxies are bigger.) I cannot tell you how often I have met folk who simply disbelieve in the speed of light as a barrier. Well, what happens if you go just under the speed of light and double your acceleration? Wouldn't that make you go faster? One might as well ask how rockets fly in space when there is no air for the explosions to push against.

The modern science fiction readers I know personally cannot make this same boast of scientific literacy.  What they read is STAR WARS type space extravaganza, or they read Robert Jordan or read George RR Martin -- but not his "Dying of the Light" or other stories set in that universe. They watch FIREFLY, which is some of the best SF on TV. But FIREFLY also is a little unclear about the different between a solar system and a galaxy (I had to watch the SERENITY movie before I was sure the whole 'Verse' universe was one highly terraformed solar system, and no FTL). They do not know their Einstein and hardly seen to know their Newton.

(Kudos, by the way, to Bab 5 for having ships in space move like space craft, not like World War I aircraft or like Ironclad sea-craft.)

I am not picking bad SF to mock here: I am picking some of the best, most entertaining, SFF of the recent years. But most of it has otherworldly or extraterrestrial backgrounds and props merely to be props, for mood and atmosphere. Indeed, the most annoying single moment in the STAR WARS sexology is the scene where Qui-Gon-Gin measures the mitochlorine (or whatever) count in the bloodstream of Young Moppet Skywalker and announces that "The Force" is a side effect of microscopic organisms. The moment broke the mood.

What is pertinent to my point here is that it broke the mood by entering the Hard-SF subghetto, not by leaving it. A universe where psychic phenomena have a mechanical cause that can be investigated by science is a Hard-SF universe. A universe where the force is a mysterious mystical aura of life-energy that can be 'followed' that way one follows the Way of the Tao, is not a Hard-SF universe.

Without even knowing what he had done, George Lucas had bungled from one genre to another: the fans were told that the flaming, disembodied head of the Great and Powerful Force was in fact controlled by the little old man behind the curtain, microorganisms in the bloodstream. Well, they are fans of Science Fiction whereas George Lucas is a fan of Buck Rogers cliffhanger serials, so they thought to ask the questions he did not ask: if Force-ness is genetic, why not breed for it? For that matter, why not stick captured Jedi in the Juice machine, drain and filter their blood, and inject students with a concentration of mitochloridian bodies, to increase their Jedi powers? Dr. McCoy was able to make the Star Trek crew into telekinetics by injecting them with extract of Plato's Stepchildren. Does the entire galaxy of long long ago and far far away have no one as clued in as Dr. Bones McCoy?

(Of course, science fiction people also asked question like whether or not Logan's claws could penetrate Steve Rogers' shield, or whether the Enterprise could handle a Star Destroyer. Ho! What a waste of time! They should really be asking whether the galaxy of long ago and far away is not, in fact, Lundmark's Nebula. Palpatine is clearly the Tyrant of Thrale, and Vader is a form of flesh energized by Gharlane of Eddore. (The answers are no and no. Admantium cannot pierce Admantium-Vibranium, and Imperial weapon systems can blast planets into asteroids in one shot, whereas Federation phasers can merely shoot from orbit to surface.) For that matter, the Founders from the Delta Quadrant are clearly the shape-changing Skrull.)

There is some hard SF still out there, don't get me wrong: I would list Will McCarthy and Stephen Baxter as frontrunners. But by and large, as technological change becomes the expected background noise of the culture, not a mind-staggering novelty, the visions of the visionaries of wonder will attracted less and less attention, even as the tropes and backgrounds of SF become well-known cultural currency in the mainstream.

Stories told in AD 3000 will no doubt still have flying cars or cloaks of invisibility in their tall tales, howsoever they tell them, around whatever version of the futuristic campfire they have in that day. They will also have fantastic tales of great deeds, farm boys becoming knights to rescue the princess from the ogre's enchanted castle, or space-farm-boys becoming jedi-knights to rescue the space-princess from the Evil Galactic Empire's super-spacebattlefortress. Science Fiction, in that sense, will not pass away. Instead, the mainstream fiction that insists on here-and-now realism will pass away, that so called 'fiction' that makes a virtue of its lack of imagination, that shall pass away. The old tales, the tales of gods and giants, will return, merely clothed in space armor.

By AD 3000, science fiction will simply be called fiction.

Mr. Harter again:

Prior to the industrial revolution there was no significant conception of the future being essential different from the present with the exception of millenarian visions. Empires might rise and fall; prosperity might wax and wane; et cetera; but the thought that the future would be different in kind from the present was a thought that did not occur to people to think. Insofar as people thought of change over time they tended to think of it as degeneration over time with a golden age in the misty past.

In the wake of the industrial revolution we see the Victorian notion of progress. This was a thought of change but one in these terms - the future will be like the present only better. It is only in the twentieth century that possibility of the future being different in kind from the present and that technology would effect this change became plausible, at least to visionaries (and in part science fiction is a literature of visionaries.)





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[info]princejvstin
2007-07-31 06:05 pm UTC (link)
SF in the year 3000 will roughly be what "technothrillers" are today and may even be called "Technothrillers". I don't think that the mundane fiction of the present will ever go away.

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[info]randallsquared
2007-07-31 06:31 pm UTC (link)
I don't think there's any reason to believe that whatever entities of AD 3000 do for fun will be easily comprehensible to 20th century vintage humans, even if some of said entities once *were* 20th century humans.

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[info]headnoises
2007-07-31 08:49 pm UTC (link)
Why not?
I can understand Hebrew poetry from over 2000 years back-- I'm pretty sure they'd get modern poetry.
I'm pretty sure that I could get a well-educated ancient Greek to understand what I do for fun, and what stuff is here. (Assuming I could get him to go past the fact that I'm a woman, magically removing language problems.)

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[info]randallsquared
2007-08-01 12:50 am UTC (link)
Sure, but you and the ancient Greek are about the same intelligence, whereas I would expect beings which think a million times faster than we do and can keep millions of things simultaneously in working memory at the same time (vs about seven for current humans) would probably have goals and plans which were understandable only in the barest outline, much as a dog can understand the ultimate goal of a man (to live, and reproduce, more or less), but not how pressing buttons while gazing at moving colors on a piece of plastic has anything to do with those goals. But more so.

One way or the other, it looks like smarter-than-human is coming along with decades, unless there turns out to be something that can't be reproduced in machina about human intelligence. If we're lucky and clever, that smarter-than-human intelligence will be us, augmented. If not, the human race is finished, and our successors will continue mostly without us.

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[info]headnoises
2007-08-01 12:58 am UTC (link)
I question your assumption that folks will change more in the next 1000 years than they have in the prior 2000.

What makes you think this? It took how many years to get a computer that can play *chess* and beat humans-- and that's a challenge well-suited to a computer intelligence. The first example of someone trying to make a "chess playing machine" was The Turk, and that was-- what, some time around the US revolution?

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(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 01:46 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 01:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 02:36 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 02:44 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 03:09 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 03:57 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 03:21 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 03:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 03:02 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 03:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-01 09:08 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 03:23 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]headnoises, 2007-08-01 03:52 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-01 01:52 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 02:47 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 03:15 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 03:26 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-01 06:37 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-01 11:58 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-02 04:05 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-02 06:42 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 01:50 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-02 05:58 pm UTC
Quantum brains of the future! - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-03 05:49 pm UTC
Re: Quantum brains of the future! - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-03 06:32 pm UTC
Where's my flying car? - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-03 09:05 pm UTC
Re: Where's my flying car? - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-03 10:18 pm UTC
Re: Quantum brains of the future! - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-03 06:34 pm UTC
Re: Quantum brains of the future! - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-03 09:25 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 01:49 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-01 05:47 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]baduin, 2007-08-01 05:57 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 12:52 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 12:09 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 12:07 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]baduin, 2007-08-02 12:35 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 02:07 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]baduin, 2007-08-02 04:54 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 05:28 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]baduin, 2007-08-02 05:54 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-02 08:33 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]baduin, 2007-08-02 09:43 pm UTC

[info]westmarked
2007-08-01 03:29 am UTC (link)
I can understand Hebrew poetry from over 2000 years back--I'm pretty sure they'd get modern poetry.

Ah, but the real question is, why on earth would they want to?

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[info]headnoises
2007-08-01 03:46 am UTC (link)
*chuckles* A good point!

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(no subject) - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-01 05:48 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-01 03:04 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 05:56 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-01 09:13 pm UTC
A.I. Good or Evil - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-01 10:08 pm UTC
Re: A.I. Good or Evil - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 12:16 am UTC
Re: A.I. Good or Evil - [info]dirigibletrance, 2007-08-02 06:40 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-02 03:52 pm UTC
Atkins - [info]catholicteacher, 2007-08-02 05:10 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 12:12 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-02 03:31 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 05:46 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]oscillon, 2007-08-02 05:00 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2007-08-02 05:47 pm UTC
Invisibility Cloaks...
[info]juliet_winters
2007-07-31 07:09 pm UTC (link)
Sorry, John. They're here already.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/3720613.stm

All righty, they wouldn't be great for creeping around space stations--yet. But it doesn't really matter the tech level or magic level for that matter. What's needed is good storytelling. Really good storytelling. The kind that leaves you riveted in place to the same spot for as long as it takes to finish it. Part of that consists of story elements but another part is sheer flair for wordsmithing. It can be written tight or loose, but there must created a hunger in the reader or listener to learn what happens next.

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Re: Invisibility Cloaks...
[info]johncwright
2007-07-31 07:19 pm UTC (link)
Keep this link for the next time someone asks you where his flying car is. "It is at Next-Fest in San Francisco."

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Re: Invisibility Cloaks...
[info]juliet_winters
2007-07-31 07:30 pm UTC (link)
There's more technical detail here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6064620.stm

I particularly enjoyed the term metamaterial.

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Future SF
[info]gray_roger
2007-07-31 07:49 pm UTC (link)
"Palpatine is clearly the Tyrant of Thrale, and Vader is a form of flesh energized by Gharlane of Eddore"

Well, I think you got that backwards. Prime minister Fossten is a lot more menacing than Darth Vader.

Reading SEEKER by Jack McDevitt, I find the future 9,000 years from now is identical to early 21st century USA. Actually, this is the boldest prediction ever made by SF. This being the case, wouldn't fiction also be identical?

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Re: Future SF
[info]johncwright
2007-07-31 10:11 pm UTC (link)
"This being the case, wouldn't fiction also be identical?"

AHA! Let us ask Chester Q. Fordyce, sciencefictioneer of the far future, what the science fiction of the Twenty-Fourth-And-A-Half century will be like, shall we?

"Qadgop the Mercoatan slithered flatly around the after-bulge of the tranship. One claw dug into the meters-thick armour of pure neutronium, then another. Its terrible xmex-like snout locked on. Its zymolosely polydactile tongue crunched out, crashed down, rasped across. Slurp! Slurp! At each abrasive stroke the groove in the tranship's plating deepened and Qadgop leered more fiercely. Fools! Did they think that the airlessness of absolute space, the heatlessness of absolute zero, the yieldlessness of absolute neutronium, could stop QADGOP THE MERCOTAN? And the stowaway, that human wench Cynthia, cowering in helpless terror just beyond this thin and fragile wall..."

Urm. I think that says it all. Maybe we are in a golden age, and all those who come after will have no taste at all. After Wagner, the Beetles. Our descendants will look back on HIGHLANDER TWO as a high point.

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Re: Future SF
[info]headnoises
2007-08-01 01:07 am UTC (link)
I have a reply to Wagner that's better than the Beetles: Trans Siberian Orchestra.

Much more fitting of a follower.

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Re: Future SF
[info]jordan179
2007-08-01 01:31 am UTC (link)
I think that, as long as we have an even remotely rational approach to the Universe, science fiction will be possible.

Despite Smith's self-parody :)

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Re: Future SF
[info]gray_roger
2007-08-01 12:45 pm UTC (link)
A couple of notes:
The Space Princess Movement is obviously still alive in the 24 1/2 Century. Slurp! Slurp!

After Wagner came Arnold Schoenberg. Every note has equality! How very Marxist! For aural delight, check out his piano concerto. I dare you not to laugh!

Up to about Revolver, I liked the Beatles a lot. Best British country-rock band ever! After, pffft! But I'm just an old Rock-a-billy at heart.

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Re: Future SF
[info]oscillon
2007-08-02 07:08 pm UTC (link)
"But I'm just an old Rock-a-billy at heart."
Thus your infatuation with old Telecasters. I'm a G&L guy myself, ASAT Junior.

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Re: Future SF - [info]gray_roger, 2007-08-02 07:21 pm UTC
A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question...
[info]quantanephilim
2007-08-01 02:06 am UTC (link)
...but I wouldn't be so quick to assume that is so. What we saw from the 1980's to today was a significant change in focus in Science Fiction; as our journey into the final frontier stagnated, the computer revolution took off. Neal Stephenson and Cory Doctorow are today's hard sci-fi writers.

Then again, that does beg the question, what is the difference between a Stephenson and a Crichton, if any?

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Stephenson vs. Crichton
[info]oscillon
2007-08-01 02:30 am UTC (link)
Stephenson is much funnier.

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Re: Stephenson vs. Crichton
[info]quantanephilim
2007-08-01 02:34 am UTC (link)
Very, very, very true. Stephenson is also ten times the writer and a hundred times the visionary that Crichton is, and that may be giving Crichton too much credit.

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Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question...
[info]dirigibletrance
2007-08-01 05:50 am UTC (link)
Stephenson is hardly "today's" Hard Sci Fi writer. He hasn't written anything worth a damn since Cryptonomicon, and that was in the 90s.

John C Wright, Ian McDonald, Peter F. Hamilton, Ken MacLeod, Peter Watts, I'd probably call them the Hard Sci Fi of today before I'd give the nod to a cyberpunk author of yesteryear.

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Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question...
[info]dirigibletrance
2007-08-01 06:38 am UTC (link)
And how could I forget Karl Schroeder? After John, he is the best. Ventus and Permanence won my heart over the first time I read them. They resurrected my long-dead Sci-fi fandom, converting me over from the crappy depths of mediocre mainstream fantasy that I was lingering in for so long.

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Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question...
[info]johncwright
2007-08-01 03:07 pm UTC (link)
You should add Wil McCarthy to your list of Hard SF dudes. TO CRUSH THE MOON was a real tour-de-force, as was LOST IN TRANSMISSION. As far as I could tell, his hard science was solid speculation, with nary a gram of handwavium or unobtainium in the mix.

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Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question... - [info]gray_roger, 2007-08-01 05:34 pm UTC
Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question... - [info]johncwright, 2007-08-01 09:14 pm UTC
Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question... - [info]gray_roger, 2007-08-01 11:42 pm UTC
Re: A shortage of Hard Sci-Fi? Maybe... and a question...
[info]oscillon
2007-08-01 06:30 pm UTC (link)
I don't think there really is a shartage at all. It just looks that way when you walk into a Borders and see what they stock. Once I gave up depending on brick and mortar stores, I found more great books than I could ever read.

Ian McDonald... Is "River of Gods" worth reading?

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[info]xander25
2007-08-01 06:01 pm UTC (link)
I wonder, then, if Fantasy will outlive SF as it's own destinct genre.

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Fantasy will outlive SF?
[info]johncwright
2007-08-02 08:35 pm UTC (link)
This merits a topic of its own.

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